Generative AI Race Heats Up as Gemini Gains Ground on ChatGPT, Morgan Stanley Reports

In the rapidly evolving landscape of generative artificial intelligence, OpenAI’s ChatGPT continues to dominate among teens and Gen Z, but Google’s Gemini is making significant inroads, particularly among older users, according to a recent Morgan Stanley research note. The report highlights shifting user dynamics in the AI chatbot market, with Gemini showing the strongest growth in daily and monthly active users over the past six months, driven by strategic product launches and integrations.

Among the 16-24 age group, ChatGPT remains the preferred choice, with 22% daily and 68% monthly usage, far outpacing Gemini and Meta AI, both at roughly 5% daily and 22% monthly usage. However, the 25-34 age demographic tells a different story, with usage split evenly across ChatGPT, Meta AI, and Gemini, signaling a more competitive field. For older age groups, ChatGPT’s adoption has plateaued, while rivals, particularly Gemini, have gained significant traction. Morgan Stanley notes that approximately 14% of Americans aged 16 and older now use ChatGPT, Gemini, or Meta AI daily, up from 11% six months ago, with each platform reaching about 40% of this demographic monthly—equivalent to roughly 100 million users per platform.

Gemini’s surge is attributed to key developments, including its standalone iOS app launch in November 2024, the release of Gemini 2.0 in February 2025, and the introduction of AI Overviews in Google Search in March 2025. These enhancements have bolstered Gemini’s appeal, particularly for commercial applications, where it holds a slight edge over ChatGPT. Morgan Stanley reports that 45% of Gemini users leverage the platform for product research, a notable increase over the past six months, compared to 37% for ChatGPT. This reflects Google’s entrenched advantage in consumer search behavior, which the company is now extending into the AI space.

Despite Gemini’s momentum, ChatGPT retains a strong lead in educational use, with 52% of its users employing it to learn new topics, compared to 46% for Gemini. The platforms also show significant user overlap, with 65-75% of users engaging with multiple AI tools, indicating that the market is still in its early stages, with differentiation likely to emerge as personalization and product innovation advance.

The broader generative AI market is witnessing rapid adoption, mirroring the early growth trajectory of social media platforms like Facebook. Morgan Stanley’s survey, conducted in September 2024 among 2,510 U.S. consumers, suggests that 25-45% of users are now using these platforms for commercial activities such as shopping, price comparison, and product research, with Gemini leading in growth for these use cases. The report underscores that platforms with established user bases and robust data ecosystems, such as Alphabet and Meta, are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend.

As the AI race intensifies, Google’s distribution advantage through Search and Android—boasting over 2 billion monthly active users—gives Gemini a formidable platform to challenge ChatGPT’s first-mover advantage. However, with ChatGPT processing over 1 billion queries daily and boasting 800 million weekly active users as of May 2025, OpenAI remains a formidable leader. The coming months will likely see further competition, as Google continues to integrate Gemini into its ecosystem and OpenAI rolls out new features to maintain its edge.